Scotland’s census day was held on March 20th, 2022, and the initial deadline to return responses was May 1st. However, after a record low response rate, the deadline was extended twice, to May 30th and then June 12th. Despite this, an estimated 12% of the nation has not filled out responses to census questions, compared to just 3% in the England and Wales census, held as normal in 2021. Undercounting over 500,000 Scots threatens to lead to errors when planning for the rollout of public services, as well as jeopardising the very purpose of a census, to create an accurate profile of the nation.
Censuses in the UK regularly have a small undercount, with roughly 2% of the population not returning census forms. However, this undercount is not distributed evenly across the country, and reports on the 2000 census indicate that factors making census responses more difficult disproportionately affect BAME residents. Areas where there have been new or redesigned housing developments mean that the census forms cannot be matched to specific addresses. Since these redevelopments often occur in inner cities, the population of these areas are more prone to being undercounted, disproportionately affecting BAME Scots. The age profile of non-responders has also historically skewed towards young men, a demographic group that is disproportionately non-white. Overall, it is likely that as the non-response rate has skyrocketed in this current census, it is BAME voices that are disproportionately being silenced across the country.
If the census undercount disproportionately affects BAME Scots, there could be wide-ranging and long-lasting consequences. The census provides the Scottish and UK Governments with information on an area’s population, but also age profile, demographic data, and deprivation levels. With this information, decisions are made surrounding the funding and allocation of multiple services across the country. This can range from education provisions to healthcare access, and so it is vital that when censuses are conducted they are as accurate as possible. Due to the failure of the 2022 census, if a specific demographic group is undercounted, they will not be considered when these funding decisions are made over the next decade.
These concerns were echoed by Lindsay Paterson, Professor of Social and Political Science at Edinburgh University. Paterson argued of the low response rate, that “86% is not guaranteed to be a representative sample of the whole Scottish population”.
Donald Cameron, Scottish Conservative Shadow Secretary for the Constitution, External Affairs and Culture called for further examination on how this census failed to give an adequate response rate. He tweeted:
“Despite an extension, and more taxpayers money spent, the Scottish Census won't achieve the uptake levels necessary for it to be successful. We need an independent inquiry to establish why this has gone so badly wrong”.
While an inquiry is welcomed as a way to prevent this from occurring in the future, it is likely that by decoupling the Scottish census from the census in England and Wales, planning decisions over the coming decade will be considerably more difficult, without an accurate representation of Scotland to rely upon.