The global pandemic has been ongoing for nearly a year. However, the successful vaccine rollout offers some hope that a strong recovery is on the way. Over seven million first doses have been given out, and the UK Government is currently on track to meet its 15 million doses target by February 15th. This progress has prompted financial analysts to suggest the economic rebound could be faster than previously anticipated. According to the investment bank, Jefferies: ‘as pressure on the healthcare system abates there may be room for a faster relaxation in social restrictions thereby allowing some of the worst areas of the economy and UK market to rebound – investment, employment and consumer & financial services.’
However, this is not to say we are out of the woods yet. A year of successive lockdowns and uncertainty have left one in seven UK businesses close to collapse. The country’s reliance on consumer retail spending means it has suffered more than other G7 nations. Although record UK Government spending has helped shield the population from the worst of the damage, unemployment is still at a five-year high, with the BAME community suffering the brunt of job cuts. The employment rate for minorities has dropped by 26 times more than it has for white workers over the same period.
Clearly the situation is precarious yet hopeful. If Scotland is to share in any future recovery, the last thing it needs is an uncertain political future. However, this has not deterred the SNP from committing to another (possibly illegal) independence referendum should they win May’s Scottish Parliament elections. Threatening to cut Scotland off from its single largest trading partner and one of the world’s most stable currencies could cripple any economic recovery causing untold harm to the thousands of people looking forward to better times.
MSPs have criticised Nicola Sturgeon for ignoring the financial problems an independent Scotland would face. Data released in August showed the Scottish deficit climbing to £15 billion in the year to April – even before the worst of the coronavirus crisis. As North Sea oil and gas revenues become an increasingly untenable solution, the SNP are at a loss as to where this money would come from.
On the whole political stability and certainty will be vital to any future upturn, yet the independence debate creates precisely the opposite atmosphere. Given how the current crisis has hurt so many, particularly in the BAME community, the SNP must cease their divisive rhetoric and focus all their efforts on working with the UK Government to strengthen the Scottish economy.